Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jack Hermansson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 18, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(65.1%)
Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jack Hermansson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
- Jack Hermansson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jack Hermansson
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-112
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
37
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jack HermanssonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22W
vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jack HermanssonMetricKelvin Gastelum
5.15
Strikes / min
3.65
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
56%
Strike defense
57%
1.48
TDs / 15 min
1.04
80%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jack HermanssonKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-8.48.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jack Hermansson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24