Welterweight
3 Rounds
Myktybek Orolbai won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 22, 2025·Doha, Qatar, Qatar
Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jack Hermansson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jack Hermansson
Red Corner
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
Blue Corner
+166
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-198
(66%)
37
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jack Hermansson
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 22W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22W
vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25Myktybek OrolbaiW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23W
vs Elves Brener · May 24L
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24W
SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25W
vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jack HermanssonMetricMyktybek Orolbai
5.15
Strikes / min
2.78
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
56%
Strike defense
51%
1.48
TDs / 15 min
8.77
80%
Takedown defense
40%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jack HermanssonMyktybek Orolbai
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.6-29.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Jack Hermansson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19
Myktybek Orolbai
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6