Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Sunday, February 19, 2017·Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Jack Marshman wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Santos has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jack Marshman
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Santos
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
36
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jack MarshmanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17L
vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18W
vs John Phillips · Mar 19L
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19L
vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jack MarshmanMetricThiago Santos
2.74
Strikes / min
3.72
4.19
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
56%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.88
20%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jack MarshmanThiago Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jack Marshman(8 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.7-5.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Jack Marshman
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24