Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jacobe Smith won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 21, 2026·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jacobe Smith wins(77.2%)
Actual result: Jacobe Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacobe Smith has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jacobe Smith has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jacobe Smith has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jacobe Smith
Red Corner
VS
Josiah Harrell
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
30
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacobe SmithW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Preston Parsons · Jan 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Jun 25Josiah HarrellNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacobe SmithMetricJosiah Harrell
6.89
Strikes / min
2.32
2.78
Strikes absorbed / min
10.94
47%
Strike defense
29%
7.78
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.11Δ 12.73 — meaningful gap-8.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jacobe SmithJosiah Harrell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacobe Smith(3 fights)Josiah Harrell(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.0-36.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.349.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-48.848.8
Jacobe Smith
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3
Josiah Harrell
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights1