Flyweight
3 Rounds
Allan Nascimento won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 31, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsAllan Nascimento: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jafel Filho wins(61.6%)
Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jafel Filho enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Allan Nascimento enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Jafel Filho
Red Corner
VS
Allan Nascimento
Blue Corner
+102
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
33
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jafel FilhoW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23W
SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23W
SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24W
SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25Allan NascimentoW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
vs Jake Hadley · May 22W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jafel FilhoMetricAllan Nascimento
1.78
Strikes / min
3.06
1.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.53
50%
Strike defense
52%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
1.26
50%
Takedown defense
37%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jafel FilhoAllan Nascimento
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jafel Filho(5 fights)Allan Nascimento(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-427.0427.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Jafel Filho
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Allan Nascimento
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5