Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jafel Filho won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsClayton Carpenter: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Jafel Filho wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jafel Filho threatens submissions; Clayton Carpenter has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Jafel Filho
Red Corner
VS
Clayton Carpenter
Blue Corner
-124
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+106
(49%)
33
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jafel Filho
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23W
SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23W
SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24L
vs Allan Nascimento · May 25Clayton Carpenter
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23W
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jafel FilhoMetricClayton Carpenter
1.78
Strikes / min
3.88
1.76
Strikes absorbed / min
4.47
50%
Strike defense
49%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
1.75
50%
Takedown defense
50%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.59
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jafel FilhoClayton Carpenter
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jafel Filho(5 fights)Clayton Carpenter(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.812.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Jafel Filho
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5
Clayton Carpenter
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights4