Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Padilla won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 22, 2025·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsChris Padilla: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(60.4%)
Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Padilla enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Jai Herbert
Red Corner
VS
Chris Padilla
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
38
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jai Herbert
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Khama Worthy · Oct 21L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22W
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24Chris PadillaW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24W
KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24W
KOvs Ismael Bonfim · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jai HerbertMetricChris Padilla
3.19
Strikes / min
6.19
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
52%
Strike defense
49%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
1.13
66%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.15Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jai HerbertChris Padilla
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jai Herbert(8 fights)Chris Padilla(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-39.939.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Jai Herbert
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8
Chris Padilla
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4