Lightweight
3 Rounds
Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(58.1%)
Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ilia Topuria has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ilia Topuria has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Jai Herbert has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jai Herbert
Red Corner
VS
Ilia Topuria
Blue Corner
+435
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
38
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'7"
195.58 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jai Herbert
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Khama Worthy · Oct 21W
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jai HerbertMetricIlia Topuria
3.19
Strikes / min
4.81
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
52%
Strike defense
64%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
1.96
66%
Takedown defense
93%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.15Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jai HerbertIlia Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jai Herbert(8 fights)Ilia Topuria(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-58.358.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
Jai Herbert
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8
Ilia Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9