Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jai Herbert won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Kyle Nelson wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Jai Herbert wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
- Jai Herbert has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jai Herbert
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-285
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jai Herbert
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Khama Worthy · Oct 21L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jai HerbertMetricKyle Nelson
3.19
Strikes / min
3.60
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
52%
Strike defense
53%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
1.18
66%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jai HerbertKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jai Herbert(8 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.7-5.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-553.0553.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Jai Herbert
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11