Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Chris Barnett won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Collier: Pressure fightervsChris Barnett: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Chris Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chris Barnett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jake Collier has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jake Collier has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Collier
Red Corner
VS
Chris Barnett
Blue Corner
-540
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+420
(19%)
37
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'9"
198.12 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake CollierL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23Chris BarnettL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · May 21W
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 21L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 22L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24L
vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake CollierMetricChris Barnett
5.80
Strikes / min
3.36
5.08
Strikes absorbed / min
6.55
50%
Strike defense
36%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.00
67%
Takedown defense
35%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 3.91 — meaningful gap-3.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake CollierChris Barnett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Collier(10 fights)Chris Barnett(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jake Collier
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights14
Chris Barnett
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6