Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jake Collier won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2017·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Collier: Pressure fightervsMarcel Fortuna: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(50.5%)
Actual result: Jake Collier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Marcel Fortuna has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jake Collier has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Collier
Red Corner
VS
Marcel Fortuna
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-255
(72%)
37
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake CollierL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23Marcel Fortuna
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Feb 17L
vs Jordan Johnson · Jul 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake CollierMetricMarcel Fortuna
5.80
Strikes / min
3.83
5.08
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
50%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.45
67%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake CollierMarcel Fortuna
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Collier(10 fights)Marcel Fortuna(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.812.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+83.0-83.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jake Collier
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights14
Marcel Fortuna
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3