Welterweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Barberena won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 25, 2018·Lincoln, Nebraska, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jake Ellenberger has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
+335
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricBryan Barberena
2.47
Strikes / min
5.35
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
60%
Strike defense
44%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
0.13
86%
Takedown defense
50%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-46.046.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-272.0272.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.12.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19