Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 5, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(61.6%)
Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
41
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Carlos Eduardo Rocha
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Kris McCray · Nov 10L
vs Mike Pierce · Jun 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricCarlos Eduardo Rocha
2.47
Strikes / min
1.24
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
60%
Strike defense
55%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
0.00
86%
Takedown defense
52%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerCarlos Eduardo Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Carlos Eduardo Rocha(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+104.0-104.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3