Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, October 5, 2012·Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsJay Hieron: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(77.5%)
Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jay Hieron has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Jake Ellenberger has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jay Hieron has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Jay Hieron
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
41
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Jay Hieron
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Feb 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricJay Hieron
2.47
Strikes / min
1.66
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
1.89
60%
Strike defense
61%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
4.05
86%
Takedown defense
66%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerJay Hieron
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Jay Hieron(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.9-64.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.448.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.349.3
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Jay Hieron
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2