Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 28, 2015·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(69.3%)
Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Josh Koscheck
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
41
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Josh KoscheckL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12L
vs Johny Hendricks · May 12L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13L
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricJosh Koscheck
2.47
Strikes / min
1.79
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.27
60%
Strike defense
63%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
2.46
86%
Takedown defense
64%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerJosh Koscheck
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+52.8-52.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-364.0364.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Josh Koscheck
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9