Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 15, 2014·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(64.4%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricKelvin Gastelum
2.47
Strikes / min
3.65
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
60%
Strike defense
57%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
1.04
86%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.918.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24