Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 16, 2013·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Jake Ellenberger has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Nate Marquardt
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
41
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricNate Marquardt
2.47
Strikes / min
2.71
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
60%
Strike defense
55%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
1.87
86%
Takedown defense
70%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+58.6-58.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-566.0566.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Nate Marquardt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14