Welterweight
5 Rounds
Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, July 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsStephen Thompson: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(65.2%)
Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Jake Ellenberger has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stephen Thompson has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Ellenberger
Red Corner
VS
Stephen Thompson
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
41
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake EllenbergerMetricStephen Thompson
2.47
Strikes / min
4.05
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
60%
Strike defense
54%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
0.23
86%
Takedown defense
63%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake EllenbergerStephen Thompson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.616.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Jake Ellenberger
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21