Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 14, 2015·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(67.8%)
Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Akbarh Arreola threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jake Matthews has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Akbarh Arreola (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Akbarh Arreola
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
31
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Akbarh Arreola
oldest →latest
L
vs Tiago Trator · Jul 14W
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Nov 14L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricAkbarh Arreola
3.34
Strikes / min
2.32
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.01
60%
Strike defense
56%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.07
64%
Takedown defense
33%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-1.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsAkbarh Arreola
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Akbarh Arreola(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.9-34.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Akbarh Arreola
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4