Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 28, 2014·Auckland, New Zealand, New Zealand
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(57.7%)
Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Matthews threatens submissions; Dashon Johnson has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Jake Matthews has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Dashon Johnson
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
31
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'7"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Dashon Johnson
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Godofredo Pepey · Sep 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricDashon Johnson
3.34
Strikes / min
1.01
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
60%
Strike defense
35%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
0.85
64%
Takedown defense
63%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap-2.82
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Dashon Johnson(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Dashon Johnson
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2