Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 8, 2025·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(63.8%)
Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Matthews has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jake Matthews has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Francisco Prado
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
31
Age
23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 23L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Francisco PradoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24L
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricFrancisco Prado
3.34
Strikes / min
3.68
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.31
60%
Strike defense
54%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
0.76
64%
Takedown defense
40%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsFrancisco Prado
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Francisco Prado(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+96.3-96.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-98.098.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Francisco Prado
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5