Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2016·Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, Australia
Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsJohnny Case: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Matthews threatens submissions; Johnny Case has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Case
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
31
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Johnny Case
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14W
KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15W
vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15W
vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricJohnny Case
3.34
Strikes / min
3.95
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
60%
Strike defense
61%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.70
64%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsJohnny Case
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-34.834.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Johnny Case
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6