Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Friday, July 8, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jake Matthews has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
31
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricKevin Lee
3.34
Strikes / min
3.88
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
60%
Strike defense
50%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
3.18
64%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.9-3.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19