Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matthew Semelsberger won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 17, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(67.2%)
Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Matthew Semelsberger
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
31
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Matthew SemelsbergerL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alex Morono · Jul 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricMatthew Semelsberger
3.34
Strikes / min
3.77
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
60%
Strike defense
54%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.01
64%
Takedown defense
45%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsMatthew Semelsberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+56.5-56.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Matthew Semelsberger
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11