Welterweight
3 Rounds
Neil Magny won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsNeil Magny: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Matthews enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Jake Matthews threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
- Neil Magny has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Neil Magny
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
31
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake MatthewsW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 23L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25Neil Magny
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mike Malott · Jan 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricNeil Magny
3.34
Strikes / min
3.40
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
60%
Strike defense
51%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
2.17
64%
Takedown defense
55%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsNeil Magny
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-6.56.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Neil Magny
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37