Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Friday, November 7, 2014·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(65.6%)
Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Matthews threatens submissions; Vagner Rocha has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jake Matthews has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Vagner Rocha
Blue Corner
-475
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+420
(19%)
31
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →latest
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25Vagner Rocha
oldest →latest
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11W
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricVagner Rocha
3.34
Strikes / min
2.64
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
60%
Strike defense
48%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
1.40
64%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jake MatthewsVagner Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.5-32.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-864.0864.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Jake Matthews
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights23
Vagner Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4