Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jake Ellenberger has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Shields
oldest →L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11W
vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13L
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14 Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake ShieldsMetricJake Ellenberger
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.65Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake ShieldsJake Ellenberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Shields(7 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +123.6|Blue -123.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake ShieldsTargetJake Ellenberger
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
