Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jamie Varner
Red Corner
VS
Drew Dober
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jamie VarnerL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jamie VarnerMetricDrew Dober
2.92
Strikes / min
4.48
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
58%
Strike defense
53%
3.49
TDs / 15 min
0.61
66%
Takedown defense
58%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jamie VarnerDrew Dober
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jamie Varner(7 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.5-6.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Jamie Varner
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26