Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gleison Tibau won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 31, 2013·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Style matchupJamie Varner: WrestlervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(70.9%)
Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gleison Tibau has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jamie Varner
Red Corner
VS
Gleison Tibau
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jamie VarnerL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12W
vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14Gleison TibauL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jamie VarnerMetricGleison Tibau
2.92
Strikes / min
1.95
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
58%
Strike defense
63%
3.49
TDs / 15 min
4.08
66%
Takedown defense
92%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jamie VarnerGleison Tibau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jamie Varner(7 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-22.822.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jamie Varner
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7
Gleison Tibau
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18