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Elo1468
Jan Blachowicz editorial illustration
Elo1521
Bogdan Guskov editorial illustration

Jan BlachowiczvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Fight begins in
Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

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Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz
Red Corner
VS
Bogdan Guskov
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1468
Elo
1521
43
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22
L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25
D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25
L
KOvs Navajo Stirling · Aug 26
latest
Bogdan Guskov
oldest →
W
KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25
D
vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25
L
KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricBogdan Guskov
3.55
Strikes / min
4.57
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
52%
Strike defense
44%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.00
69%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.48
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501475150015251550← oldermost recent →
Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -53.1|Blue +53.1
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +231.0|Blue -231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO67%

Historical win share: Bogdan Guskov earned 75% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission33%

Historical win share: Bogdan Guskov earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights23

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8