Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Jan Blachowicz won · S-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2019·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsJacare Souza: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(57.2%)
Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jacare Souza has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jan Blachowicz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jan Blachowicz
Red Corner
VS
Jacare Souza
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
43
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jan Blachowicz
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25Jacare SouzaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Uriah Hall · May 20L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jan BlachowiczMetricJacare Souza
3.55
Strikes / min
2.53
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
52%
Strike defense
62%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
2.57
69%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jan BlachowiczJacare Souza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-43.443.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jan Blachowicz
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights21
Jacare Souza
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17