Welterweight
3 Rounds
Abubakar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, March 27, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJared Gooden: Pressure fightervsAbubakar Nurmagomedov: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Abubakar Nurmagomedov wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Abubakar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Gooden threatens submissions; Abubakar Nurmagomedov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jared Gooden has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jared Gooden
Red Corner
VS
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jared Gooden
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 21L
vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23W
SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23L
vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24Abubakar Nurmagomedov
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs David Zawada · Nov 19W
vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev · Oct 22L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jared GoodenMetricAbubakar Nurmagomedov
4.40
Strikes / min
2.78
6.74
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
45%
Strike defense
65%
0.91
TDs / 15 min
1.25
65%
Takedown defense
88%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.34Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jared GoodenAbubakar Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jared Gooden(7 fights)Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.1-3.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-378.0378.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Jared Gooden
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4