Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 30, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsGrant Dawson: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Gordon has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
- Grant Dawson has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jared Gordon
Red Corner
VS
Grant Dawson
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-220
(69%)
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jared Gordon
oldest →latest
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24W
KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25L
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jared GordonMetricGrant Dawson
5.57
Strikes / min
3.14
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
55%
Strike defense
44%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
3.58
60%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.46evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jared GordonGrant Dawson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jared Gordon(10 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.031.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-196.0196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Jared Gordon
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights16
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13