Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jared Gordon won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 17, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(65.4%)
Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Jared Gordon
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Moises
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+102
(50%)
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jared GordonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Leonardo Santos · Aug 22L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24L
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Jan 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jared GordonMetricThiago Moises
5.57
Strikes / min
2.52
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
1.37
60%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.46Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap-1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jared GordonThiago Moises
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jared Gordon(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-8.88.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+203.0-203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Jared Gordon
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights16
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15