Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 29, 2010·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jason Brilz wins(61.9%)
Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Jason Brilz has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Rogerio Nogueira has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
- Rogerio Nogueira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jason Brilz
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
+435
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-500
(83%)
50
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason BrilzL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Eric Schafer · Mar 10L
KOvs Vladimir Matyushenko · Apr 11L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 11Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason BrilzMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.66
Strikes / min
2.43
1.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
65%
Strike defense
59%
2.37
TDs / 15 min
0.64
25%
Takedown defense
62%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.88evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jason BrilzRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason Brilz(4 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.0-16.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.947.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Jason Brilz
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12