Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jason Gonzalez won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jason Gonzalez wins(61.9%)
Actual result: Jason Gonzalez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason Gonzalez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jason Gonzalez threatens submissions; JC Cottrell has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jason Gonzalez has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- JC Cottrell has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jason Gonzalez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jason Gonzalez
Red Corner
VS
JC Cottrell
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
36
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason GonzalezL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Sep 16L
SUBvs Gregor Gillespie · Sep 17L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19JC Cottrell
oldest →latest
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason GonzalezMetricJC Cottrell
3.06
Strikes / min
0.79
3.13
Strikes absorbed / min
2.75
58%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.79
30%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap-1.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jason GonzalezJC Cottrell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)JC Cottrell(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.81.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Jason Gonzalez
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4
JC Cottrell
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights2