Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jason MacDonald won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 30, 2011·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupJason MacDonald: Submission grapplervsRyan Jensen: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Ryan Jensen wins(59.6%)
Actual result: Jason MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason MacDonald enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jason MacDonald threatens submissions; Ryan Jensen has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Ryan Jensen has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jason MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jason MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Jensen
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
50
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason MacDonaldL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Salter · May 10L
KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12Ryan Jensen
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jesse Forbes · May 10L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason MacDonaldMetricRyan Jensen
1.55
Strikes / min
2.84
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
46%
Strike defense
59%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
1.55
35%
Takedown defense
31%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15evenly matched on net striking-0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jason MacDonaldRyan Jensen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason MacDonald(4 fights)Ryan Jensen(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.518.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jason MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4
Ryan Jensen
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3