Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tom Lawlor won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Tuesday, May 15, 2012·Fairfax, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupJason MacDonald: Submission grapplervsTom Lawlor: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Tom Lawlor wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Tom Lawlor wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Lawlor is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Jason MacDonald threatens submissions; Tom Lawlor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Tom Lawlor has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tom Lawlor has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
- Jason MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jason MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Tom Lawlor
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-220
(69%)
50
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
203.2 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason MacDonald
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Salter · May 10W
SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11L
KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11Tom Lawlor
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason MacDonaldMetricTom Lawlor
1.55
Strikes / min
2.50
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.41
46%
Strike defense
60%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
2.46
35%
Takedown defense
57%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jason MacDonaldTom Lawlor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason MacDonald(4 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Jason MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4
Tom Lawlor
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8