Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 16, 2017·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupJason Saggo: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gilbert Burns has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jason Saggo
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason Saggo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14L
vs Paul Felder · Oct 14W
KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16W
vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason SaggoMetricGilbert Burns
2.50
Strikes / min
3.16
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
52%
Strike defense
52%
2.33
TDs / 15 min
2.04
23%
Takedown defense
53%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jason SaggoGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason Saggo(6 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.011.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Jason Saggo
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24