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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jason Saggo won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1362

Elo1356

Jason SaggovsJustin SalasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jason Saggo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:31

Style matchupJason Saggo: WrestlervsJustin Salas: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jason Saggo wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Jason Saggo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Saggo at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Saggo is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Justin Salas has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Justin Salas has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jason Saggo has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo

Red Corner

Justin Salas

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1362

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason SaggoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14

vs Paul Felder · Oct 14

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Sep 17

latest

Justin Salas

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Jun 12

vs Aaron Riley · Jul 13

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13

KOvs Ben Wall · May 14

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricJustin Salas

2.50

Strikes / min

3.42

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

52%

Strike defense

68%

2.33

TDs / 15 min

2.43

23%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason SaggoJustin Salas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Saggo(6 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -80.0|Blue +80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetJustin Salas

By target zone

58% acc · 95%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

0% acc

By position

14% acc · 5%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

68% acc · 95%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Saggo rounds

even

Justin Salas rounds

Round 1Jason Saggo edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:21

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 35

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

57%

Sig Str %

33%

31 / 56

Total Strikes

2 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Salas	1 / 3	2 / 4	1 / 1	0
1	Jason Saggo	20 / 35	31 / 56	0 / 0	0

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7