Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2023·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(58.2%)
Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Jessica Andrade has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Jessica Andrade has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jessica Andrade
Red Corner
VS
Mackenzie Dern
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'4"
157.48 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jessica AndradeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Aug 23W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24L
vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24L
SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25L
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Angela Hill · May 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jessica AndradeMetricMackenzie Dern
6.37
Strikes / min
3.47
5.58
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
54%
Strike defense
51%
2.10
TDs / 15 min
0.93
75%
Takedown defense
37%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.79Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jessica AndradeMackenzie Dern
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.62.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jessica Andrade
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights30
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16