Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Tabatha Ricci won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jessica Penne wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tabatha Ricci has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tabatha Ricci has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jessica Penne has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jessica Penne
Red Corner
VS
Tabatha Ricci
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
43
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'1"
170.18 cm
Reach
154.94 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jessica PenneL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Danielle Taylor · Apr 17W
vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21W
SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21L
vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22L
vs Elise Reed · Oct 24Tabatha Ricci
oldest →latest
L
vs Loopy Godinez · Nov 23W
vs Tecia Pennington · May 24W
vs Angela Hill · Aug 24L
vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24W
KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jessica PenneMetricTabatha Ricci
2.63
Strikes / min
4.00
5.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.83
45%
Strike defense
57%
1.29
TDs / 15 min
2.51
36%
Takedown defense
65%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.42Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.83
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jessica PenneTabatha Ricci
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jessica Penne(9 fights)Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-29.629.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Jessica Penne
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9
Tabatha Ricci
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights11