Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jesus Aguilar won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupJesus Aguilar: Submission grapplervsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(54.7%)
Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Jesus Aguilar
Red Corner
VS
Luis Gurule
Blue Corner
+158
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-188
(65%)
30
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
157.48 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jesus AguilarL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26Luis GuruleL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25L
vs Alden Coria · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jesus AguilarMetricLuis Gurule
2.54
Strikes / min
4.47
2.29
Strikes absorbed / min
4.74
61%
Strike defense
59%
1.52
TDs / 15 min
0.58
45%
Takedown defense
58%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jesus AguilarLuis Gurule
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)Luis Gurule(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.0-32.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Jesus Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7
Luis Gurule
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights3