Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jesus Aguilar won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 24, 2024·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupJesus Aguilar: Submission grapplervsMateus Mendonca: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jesus Aguilar has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mateus Mendonca has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jesus Aguilar
Red Corner
VS
Mateus Mendonca
Blue Corner
+114
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
30
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'6"
157.48 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jesus Aguilar
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26Mateus MendoncaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Javid Basharat · Jan 23L
KOvs Nate Maness · Oct 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jesus AguilarMetricMateus Mendonca
2.54
Strikes / min
1.66
2.29
Strikes absorbed / min
4.14
61%
Strike defense
30%
1.52
TDs / 15 min
2.54
45%
Takedown defense
55%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25Δ 2.73 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jesus AguilarMateus Mendonca
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.5-30.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Jesus Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7
Mateus Mendonca
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3