Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jhonata Diniz won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 10, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJhonata Diniz: StrikervsKarl Williams: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Jhonata Diniz wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Jhonata Diniz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karl Williams enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Karl Williams has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Jhonata Diniz
Red Corner
VS
Karl Williams
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jhonata Diniz
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Austen Lane · Apr 24L
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Nov 24W
vs Alvin Hines · Jun 25L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Oct 25Karl WilliamsW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · Mar 23W
vs Chase Sherman · May 23W
vs Justin Tafa · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jhonata DinizMetricKarl Williams
3.89
Strikes / min
2.68
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
56%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.20
70%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jhonata DinizKarl Williams
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)Karl Williams(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-23.723.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Jhonata Diniz
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5
Karl Williams
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4