Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jim Miller won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2019·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsClay Guida: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jim Miller threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jim Miller
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jim Miller
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jesse Butler · Jun 23W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24L
vs King Green · Apr 24W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jim MillerMetricClay Guida
2.92
Strikes / min
2.63
3.43
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
3.10
47%
Takedown defense
66%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jim MillerClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jim Miller(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.815.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jim Miller
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights39
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27