Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jim Miller won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2015·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(59.1%)
Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jim Miller
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
42
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jim Miller
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jesse Butler · Jun 23W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24L
vs King Green · Apr 24W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jim MillerMetricDanny Castillo
2.92
Strikes / min
2.57
3.43
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
2.95
47%
Takedown defense
63%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jim MillerDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jim Miller(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.9-28.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Jim Miller
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights39
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14