Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jim Miller won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 2, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jim Miller
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
42
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jim Miller
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jesse Butler · Jun 23W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24L
vs King Green · Apr 24W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jim MillerMetricDonald Cerrone
2.92
Strikes / min
4.41
3.43
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
56%
Strike defense
53%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.16
47%
Takedown defense
73%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jim MillerDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jim Miller(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.924.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-287.0287.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Jim Miller
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights39
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37