Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jimmy Crute won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jimmy Crute threatens submissions; Ivan Erslan has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Ivan Erslan has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Jimmy Crute
Red Corner
VS
Ivan Erslan
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+194
(34%)
30
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jimmy Crute
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Apr 21L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21L
SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23D
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25Ivan ErslanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24L
vs Navajo Stirling · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jimmy CruteMetricIvan Erslan
4.15
Strikes / min
2.55
3.65
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
42%
Strike defense
53%
4.39
TDs / 15 min
0.45
58%
Takedown defense
61%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-2.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jimmy CruteIvan Erslan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Ivan Erslan(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+37.5-37.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Jimmy Crute
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Ivan Erslan
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3