Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jimmy Crute won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 1, 2018·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupJimmy Crute: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(64.9%)
Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig threatens submissions; Jimmy Crute has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Jimmy Crute has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Jimmy Crute
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
30
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jimmy CruteW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21L
SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23D
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25W
SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jimmy CruteMetricPaul Craig
4.15
Strikes / min
2.50
3.65
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
42%
Strike defense
43%
4.39
TDs / 15 min
1.43
58%
Takedown defense
35%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jimmy CrutePaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.41.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.7-48.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Jimmy Crute
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20